Australia’s mid-season macadamia crop forecast has been sharply downgraded, as growers and processors manage one of the most difficult and unpredictable seasons in recent years.

Continued weather-related disruptions mean the true extent of available supply is difficult to determine at this stage.

As a result, the revised forecast now anticipates production will fall within a range of 37,300 to 41,970 tonnes in-shell at 3.5 per cent moisture (40,000 to 45,000 tonnes in-shell at 10 per cent moisture), down from the previous estimate of 55,960 tonnes in-shell at 3.5 per cent moisture (60,000 tonnes in-shell at 10 per cent moisture).

Growers in New South Wales are reporting their lowest crops in a decade, with a number still unable to access orchards due to extensive ongoing wet weather.

In Queensland, growers are also seeing lower-than-expected yields, with wide variability across and within orchards.

Processor intakes are expected to be well below their early season forecast.

AMS chief executive Clare Hamilton-Bate says despite the challenges, we’re still seeing high quality nut across the regions.

“Even in a difficult season, our on-farm and post-harvest practices have allowed us to maintain high standards and deliver premium product to global markets,” Clare says.

The 2025 mid-season crop forecast update is based on actual factory receipts of the Australian Macadamia Handlers Association (AMHA) to date and estimated production for non-members.

The AMHA represents 90 per cent of the macadamia crop in Australia.

The final 2025 crop figure will be confirmed in December.