By Muneer Rehman, Tatura Smart Farm, Agriculture Victoria 

Australia’s summer fruit industry is rapidly expanding in global markets, supplying premium quality nectarines and plums.

Recently, Australian plums made a sensational launch in Vietnam, marking a memorable moment in the fruit world. 

And while the expansion in international markets benefits growers and exporters, success isn’t just about producing good quality fruit in the orchard, it’s also about ensuring the fruit arrives in top condition to meet strict international standards and consumer expectations.

As demand increases, so does the need to provide fruit which stays firm and fresh for longer.

Peaches, plums and nectarines are delicate and perishable; therefore, understanding how their quality changes overtime during storage and transport is critical for maintaining market competitiveness.

That’s where Agriculture Victoria research comes in.

By combining firmness testing, storage trials and real-world consignment tracking, we are developing models to help growers and exporters make smarter decisions about when and where to send their fruit.

Understanding fruit firmness and quality

Fruit firmness is a key quality indicator influencing consumer satisfaction and marketability.

Firmness determines:

• The best time for harvest.

• Postharvest quality.

• Expected shelf life.

Growers have traditionally measured firmness manually using penetrometers.

However, predicting how quickly fruit softens during transport remains a challenge.

By monitoring fruit firmness from harvest through shipping, we can predict when the fruit will reach peak eating quality and identify the point at which it may become too soft for sale.

In addition to firmness, other key quality attributes that we measure in our research program include soluble solid concentration (SSC), internal browning and mealiness.

Sampling commercially grown fruit for testing storage conditions and shelf life.

To understand how long fruit stays firm, we conducted controlled storage trials at different temperatures (2, 4, 8 and12°C) across multiple time frames (up to 27 days) to simulate air and sea freight scenarios to export markets for Diamond pearl, Flavour pearl, Polar zee, September bright and Majestic pearl nectarine cultivars.

After storage, fruit was kept at 18°C for four days to simulate supply chain conditions.

These trials help determine how varying storage temperatures and durations impact fruit quality, providing valuable insights for export planning.

Predicting softening rates enables better decisions about harvest timing, packing and shipping.

 Tracking real-world export shipments

While simulated storage trials are practical and the results can be used to build prediction models, they don’t capture the full picture in the real world.

To complement our findings, we have tracked commercial shipments of Australian nectarines and plums to China, Vietnam and Malaysia during the past two years.

By monitoring sea and air freight conditions, we can assess how shipping time, temperature fluctuations and handling affect fruit quality upon arrival based on feedback from trained assessors in the market. Combining real-world shipment data with controlled storage trials allows us to create more accurate shelf-life prediction models.

Refining and validating prediction models 

To ensure accuracy, we continuously re ne our models based on trial results.

For example, if a model predicts fruit will stay rm for 12 days but it softens in 10 days, we adjust our calculations.

The more data we gather, the more reliable our predictions become.

We validate models by testing new shipments and storage conditions, confirming their reliability across different fruit cultivars and regions.

The future: smarter shelf-life predictions for better decisions

Our research aims to provide growers and exporters with a decision-making tool to answer key questions about fruit freshness, suitable markets for shipping, transport methods and optimal storage conditions.

By enhancing shelf-life predictions, we can reduce waste, improve fruit quality at sale and increase profitability.

Integrating shelf-life forecasting into export planning will help keep Australian summer fruit competitive in global markets.